Time to spill the beans on the winter forecast.
Over the coming days we will point out why we think the winter will evolve this way and make changes up until the Dec. 1 winter start date. There are 3 things going on: 1. A stubborn jet in Canada. 2. Neutral oscillations. and 3. One active, changeable oscillation (going from blocking to non-blocking). And that is it; just 3 things with a whole lot of little local things which could blow the whole outlook.
A strong west to east jet across Canada will cause periods of mild weather. A strong negative and positive NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation changing every 2-3 weeks will set the stage for a variable forecast causing a roller coaster of a winter ride. With the main storms coming out of Texas to KY once in a while cold air will be in place for heavy snows locally. We are calling for 17-18″ this year which is half a foot above normal. Temperatures will make strong moves both warm and cold. Enjoy.
It was fun, educational, and hard to do. Enjoy and give us your thoughts and say why. We even counted fogs in August! lol --Kerry Dean, NWA
(There will be another update right before meteorological winter begins-Dec. 1)